QE vigilantes 1, The Fed 0

Surprise! Most, including myself, had expected the Fed to announce a tapering at today's meeting. My view - likely in the $10 billion range.

Instead, there was no change in policy.

My thoughts:

1. The Fed doesn't have much confidence in its economic outlook

2. The Fed is concerned about the back-up in interest rates and the possible effect on housing

3. There is some concern about fiscal restraint and the budget battles that loom.

Much of this comes directly from the Fed's statement.

Just to illustrate: 

“The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall, but the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market (italics,underlined my emphasis and a new addition to the September statement vs the July statement).

"...but mortgage rates have risen further and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth."

Stocks surged, with the Dow and the S&P hitting a new record, but the focus will shift to the upcoming budget battles. Plus, will investors get that uneasy feeling since the Fed isn't seeing the kind of economic activity they had envisioned?

For now, the QE vigilantes that drove rates skyward seem to have forced the Fed to blink, and Bernanke is no longer so focused on a jobless rate that had given him the green light to taper.

Damage control, feral hogs, and the QE vigilantes

It's just been a few days since Bernanke told us that QE is on the chopping block if the economic data play out like the Fed expects. Market reaction, however, has been less than kind.

So we're seeing some damage control today by a couple of more hawkish Fed members - non-voting FOMC members but nonetheless influential Fed members.

First, Minneapolis Fed head Kocherlakota felt compelled to issued a statement saying it may be appropriate to keep the fed funds rate at an extraordinarily low level at least until the unemployment rate falls below 5.5%. Recall that Bernanke's threshold is 6.5%.

Then we have the always colorful Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher who told the Financial Times, "...big money does organize itself somewhat like feral hogs. If they detect a weakness or a bad scent, they’ll go after it.”

Though he has never been a fan of QE, he repeated he doesn't want to go from" wild turkey to cold turkey overnight."

This brings us to a new group of bond traders on the Street - the QE vigilantes.

Most of have heard of the bond vigilantes.Wikipedia offers a good definition - When investors perceive that inflation risk or credit risk is rising they demand higher yields to compensate for the added risk. That in turn helps keep inflation and government spending in check.

In recent years, the vigilantes have been dormant against the backdrop of trillion dollar deficits. A lack of near-term inflation anxieties are playing a role.

Those inflation bond vigilantes may now be morphing into the "QE vigilantes," as they launch waves of bear raids on the market, hoping to slow growth and force the Fed to keep the liquidity hose aimed at the bond market.

Fisher is standing in the gap.

The Fed's 360 degree door

Today's testimony by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke, as well as the minutes from the latest Fed meeting released later in the day, gave central bankers a door to pursue any number of policy options.

Let me explain. Early today, Bernanke testified before a Congressional committee that a premature tightening of monetary policy would carry substantial risks.

Got it. The Fed won't be paring back on bond purchases anytime soon.

Then, during the Q&A session, Bernanke said the Fed could reduce QE in the next few meetings, but added that it all depends on the data. Hmmm.

Muddy minutes
To make matters even more interesting, the Fed's minutes included this statement.

"A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth; however, views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome."

But the minutes also referred in a number of instances to "downside risks."

So Bernanke is warning against a premature tightening, but a number of participants are expressing a willingness to cut back on bond buys, possibly by June.

Confused? The Fed sure seems divided. Or maybe it just doesn't want to clearly communicate when it might be start to taper off as it is worried the Street would quickly price in any exit.

Bottom line - the Fed has shifted the gravity of its position towards tapering off, but it has kept the door open to any number of policy responses if conditions warrant. It's a policy for all seasons.

Federal deficit? What deficit

OK. So a CBO estimate of a FY2013 federal deficit of $642 billion is still $642 billion. But its $200 billion less than the CBO estimated just three months ago. And it's well below the $1.1 trillion 2012 federal deficit.

So what gives? Simple. Revenues are coming in faster than expected thanks to a "modest-at-best" economic recovery that is putting folks back to work and creating taxpayers. Moreover, repayments by Fannie and Freddie are also helping.

And let's not forget that spending restraint - federal spending will fall for the second year in a row - is also helping to sop up the red ink quicker than anyone thought possible.

At 4% of GDP and falling, the deficit is finally becoming manageable.

The next question - is the CBO estimate still too conservative?

The CBO said last August that the deficit would fall to $641 billion if the country went over the fiscal cliff. Wow! That's one helluva of a miss. But it also highlights the difficulty in forecasting revenues and spending.

At least for 2013, the country was able to extend the Bush tax cuts to 99% of the population and come within $1 billion of hitting the CBO's target.  Let me repeat - all without a cliff-induced recession!

Is the deficit falling too quickly? 
Sounds like an odd question to ask, but pulling cash too quickly out of the economy could slow growth.

So those who favor a more activist government would argue that additional government spending would slow any fiscal drag and create more jobs.

Those who want to see the government get out of the way would argue there is room for more tax cuts, which would unleash additional business and consumer spending.

You make the call.

Stocks - like watching the grass grow

Seemingly inspired by last week’s ‘sigh of relief’ employment report, the major stock market indices topped new milestones in what can only be described as a ‘watching the grass grow’ rally.

Sure, it’s been dull, but who says rising portfolio values have to be accompanied by heightened exuberance. 

Same 'ole, same 'ole 
Earnings season is winding down, and you know it's a slow week when the most important economic report is weekly jobless claims.

But the general themes that have been in place since the beginning of the year - stronger corporate profits, accommodative global central banks, an expanding economy, and very quiet credit markets - were all a part of the equation.

Oh. In case you were wondering, jobless claims hit a fresh 5-year low.

The European Central Bank finally delivers on a rate cut

The euro-zone remains bogged down in a recession, and after a new record for unemployment - 12.1% - and a drop in it's CPI  to a rate of 1.2%, the European Central Bank finally threw in the towel and offered up what I would call a symbolic rate cut of 25 bp to 0.50%.

Whoopee! Sadly, Europe's in a world of hurt, and a 0.25% reduction in its key rate won't solve what ails its economy.

One reason in particular came to light in the ECB's press conference, which traditionally follows its monthly meeting.

ECB President Mario Draghi remarked, and I'll relay his complete statement before commenting, "In the U.S., 80 percent of credit intermediation goes via the capital market. Capital markets rate and price assets in a right or wrong way, but it’s fairly transparent.In the European situation, it's the other way around; 80% of financial intermediation goes through the banking system."

That's a huge problem for Europe, but it highlights one reason the U.S. economy has managed to plow ahead, even if it's at a sub-par pace.

You see, U.S. banks weren't lending during the recession and in the initial stages of it's recovery. In fact, standards are still on the tight side. But access to capital via capital markets provided some lift.

European businesses depend on banks for support, and their banks are under-capitalized and aren't lending. In fact, they'll need to raise hundreds of billions of euros in capital or shed trillions in assets to get capital ratios where they need to be.

That means Europeans will have to navigate a very rocky road in the coming months and years..

Euro-zone problems continue

Earlier in the week, we found out that the euro-zone unemployment rate held at a record 12.0% in February, highlighting the difficult problems being faced by policy makers on the other side of the Atlantic.



Today, the European Central Bank offered little comfort with the exception of touting its past achievements that have kept the woefully under-capitalized banking system from blowing apart at the seems.

I guess we really should be thankful for small favors.

ECB President Mario Draghi still believes the euro-zone will experience  a gradual recovery in the second half of the year, but he added a caveat - that any recovery is “subject to downside risks.”

It sounds as if he may be losing a little faith in his own forecast. At 75 bp, monetary policy is accommodative, but he’s not offering much more stimulus.

A rate cut was discussed “extensively,'” but a 25 bp or even a 50 bp rate reduction would be mostly symbolic. And don’t expect much in the way of fiscal stimulus.

Europe’s in a mess, and its weak banking system isn’t in a position to supply needed credit.

All this shouldn’t be lost in the U.S. investor. Sure, the market has pierced all-time highs, but weak sales in Europe seem likely to hinder profits at home.

Keep an eye on comments from the multinationals, as they report profits.

Cyprus keeps it interesting

We watch Europe quiet down, at least for a while, and then problems resurface. This time it's Cyprus.

The European Central Bank has done a remarkable job of holding the financial system in Europe together, but what is truly needed is economic growth. Until the recession in Europe ends, its under-capitalized banking system will remain under considerable stress.

Still, muted market reaction in the U.S and in Europe - a lack of reaction in Spanish and Italian debt yields - is signaling a lack of anxiety over contagion.

Monday is the deadline for Cyprus to accept German/IMF terms. If Cyprus rejects, its banking system will collapse, and we will likely see some renewed volatility, as the market tests ECB President Draghi's pledge to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.

If Cyprus cries "uncle" (it really doesn't have much choice and that is what markets are pricing in), we limp through the latest euro-zone debt crisis.

Cyprus hopes to trip up the bulls

Over the weekend, news broke that Cyprus will levy a tax on its depositors to help with a bailout of its faltering banking system.

Not surprisingly, we saw a run on ATM machines in the country, but no bank lines as the financial institutions were closed today and are expected to be closed until Thursday.

The uncertainty created by the situation on the tiny island in the eastern Mediterranean shook global markets amid concerns that we might evenutally see a repeat in larger countries like Spain or Italy. The last thing we want to see is Italian depositors lining up around the block, demanding their life savings.

Stocks in the U.S. opened lower but pared losses by the close. In a flight to safety, Treasuries jumped as trading began but came off highs as cooler heads prevailed. Even better, junk bond fund fully recovered from early losses. Want a canary in the cold mine? High-yield funds are the closest you'll get.

What we saw today was an attempt by U.S. markets to sort through the noise.

But let's take a step back. Cyprus is barely 0.25% of euro-zone GDP, and countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland have failed to sink the euro.

I don't have a crystal ball, but it seems unlikely that a cataclysmic euro-zone event might originate with Cyprus. Volatility? Probably. Stocks never move in a straight line.

Bottom line - Europe's problems have subsided and the relative calm in the credit markets has been a boon to U.S. stocks - think the removal of a roadblock. As we saw today, euro-zone woes haven't been put to rest.

The Dow tops a psychological milestone

The bulls have been gunning for the Dow’s all-time high for several weeks, and on Tuesday, positive sentiment finally helped the oldest and best known of the major market averages close above a threshold that hadn’t been seen since Oct 2007.

Yes, it may be just a psychological barrier, but it’s one that gets plenty of attention. And today, in a rocky session, the Dow added another 42 points.

General themes that have been driving equities higher include:

· Slow but steady economic growth

· Profits are topping a low hurdle

· Quieter credit markets in Europe (more of a removal a roadblock)

· The search for yield

· A very accommodative Fed policy

· The renewed interest in LBOs and mergers

· A sense that China’s economy won’t stall

· Europe is expected to exit its recession later in the year

· The fiscal cliff was avoided at the beginning of the year.

Are there risks? You bet. Some include the possibility that European credit markets could flare-up again, China could experience a hard landing, or the U.S. recovery could stall.

Cliff diving

Bad news continues to dribble out of Europe, and there is always the ever-present worry about corporate profits and how the global economic slowdown will hit the bottom line.

But the major players in the upcoming fiscal negotiations appeared to be digging in their heels on Wednesday, suggesting a protracted battle is brewing over the fiscal cliff.

That’s not what the Street wants to hear. Still, it shouldn’t come as a surprise as an emboldened president and a tax-averse House Speaker unveil their opening positions.

On Friday, a meeting of top Democrats and Republicans ended on a more conciliatory note in what are sure to be difficult talks.

Looking skeptically at September’s unemployment rate

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in September by three ticks to 7.8%. Most economist had anticipated an unchanged reading or a small rise to 8.2%.

In the meantime, nonfarm payrolls rose by a muted 114,000 last month. That was generally in line with expectations given the weak economic recovery. Further, the private sector managed to generate just 104,000 jobs.

So what gives? Why the outsized drop in the politically sensitive indicator?

The unemployment rate did not decline due to discouraged job seekers leaving the job market, which has occurred in some of the prior reports.

In fact the rolls of the employed rose by an astounding 873,000 (including 582,000 part-time workers), according the the household survey!



Quirks in seasonal adjustments?
The last three years have recorded outsized gains in part-time employment September, which then washes out in October.




The BLS might want to review their statistical models.

The Fed–shoot now, ask questions later

The markets had anticipated the Fed would act, but the magnitude of the FOMC’s open-ended commitment to increase its balance sheet was met with a bullish stampede today.

And it wasn’t just stocks. Oil, gold and a host of other commodities gained ground.

The Fed is trying to reflate, and it won’t stop until it sees substantial progress in the labor market. In fact, the Fed’s statement was clear:

“If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.”

So it's not just looking for improvement. The Fed will continue its bond purchases until it sees "substantial improvement."

At least publicly, it does not believe it will materially add to inflation, but the key question is whether its latest path will aid the economy and move the needle on the unemployment rate.

QE1 and QE2 - or $2.3 trillion in bond buys - have failed to significantly lift the economy. Bernanke even acknowledged in his press conference that "I don't think our tools are that strong."

The Fed chief has said before that monetary policy is not a panacea, but that was an interesting remark as the central bank embarks on a new chapter.

The 3 E’s–Earnings, Economy and Europe

While investors brace for the upcoming earnings season, Europe, and Spain in particular, are still on the radar, while the economy remains front and center.

Sluggish growth has liquidity-addicted traders hoping for a lifeline from the Fed, but the latest minutes the last meeting offered few concrete signs that a new burst of liquidity is on the way.

A few Fed members thought “further policy stimulus likely would be necessary,” but  several others felt new actions “could be warranted if the economic recovery were to lose momentum.”

The Fed will never send a definitive signal of future action, but traders were hoping for something a bit stronger.

With interest rates at a record low, however, many doubt a flood of new cash into the financial system would have much impact on the real economy.

Spain’s bailout–the thrill is gone

A hastily announced bailout of Spanish banks last weekend – to the tune of up to €100 billion ($125 billion) – managed to spark a rally in the Dow that lasted barely an hour on Monday morning.

As we’ve seen in the past, the devil is in the details, and surging Spanish, and to a lesser extent Italian bond yields, are reflecting a market that was not convinced Europe is turning the corner.

Stocks, however, have posted decent gains thanks to growing expectations that the Fed will offer up new measures at its meeting next week.

Further, a report yesterday by Reuters that global central banks may act in a coordinated fashion if credit markets significantly tighten following next Sunday’s election in Greece also supported sentiment.

Attention is now turning to the parliamentary elections in the Hellenic Republic this Sunday. A victory by pro-austerity parties would likely soothe concerns, especially if a coalition can be formed.

However, if the radical left comes out on top, fears of a Greek exit from the 17-nation currency could further jar markets, barring any central bank intervention.

A discouraging nonfarm payrolls report

Nonfarm payrolls rose a disappointing 69k in May, less than half what was expected; June revised downward from 115k to 77k

The unemployment rate rose from 8.1% to 8.2%.

The internals of the nonfarm payrolls number were poor.

I’m hearing some chatter that this is still weather-related payback from a mild winter?  So let’s look at some of the numbers.

· The service sector produced 218k in Feb, including 89k in professional and business services in Feb.

But in May those categories fell to 97k and -1k, respectively.

It’s hard to argue that a hiring manager in a high-rise looks out the window and checks the Weather Channel before making his/her hiring decision.

If there is a silver lining, the household survey that measures the unemployment rate showed a 422k rise in employment, but a 642k increase in the labor force produced the 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate. Pick up in June activity?

This is a volatile measure of employment and markets ignored it. DJIA futures went from -100 to -200 in the blink of an eye, and the 10-year Treasury fell from 1.53 to 1.48%.

The Fed –

This raises chatter of QE3, but the 10-yr is already near 1.5%!

If the Fed wants to get rates down, Europe and economic worries are accomplishing this. However, the action in the bond market, coupled with weakness in employment and commodities is troubling. And low rates just aren’t jump-starting growth.

That a monetary policy that focuses on asset appreciation. Still, there’s only a tenuous link between higher stock prices and consumer action. And the blunt action of Fed bond buys could reignite commodity inflation.

But if the Fed moves ahead, purchases of mortgage-backed securities may be considered, as the 30-year fixed mortgage has badly lagged the drop in the 10-year Treasury.

One last point, action in commodities and the recent “collapse” in 10-year yields is worrisome. The bond market, which does a better job than the stock market in terms of future activity, is screaming the “R” word.

Bernanke’s testimony next Thursday now becomes an even bigger market event.

Bernanke talks unemployment

Ben Bernanke's primary focus in today's speech - the unemployment rate.

While some in the press attribute today's advance in equities to Bernanke's positive spin on the recent decline in the unemployment rate, I tend to believe that his caveats temper his optimism.

Bernanke called the "notable decline in the unemployment rate" to be "good news," but immediately added, "some key questions are unresolved." And he's not optimistic that the recent rate of decline will continue unless we see a pick-up in growth.

What may be driving equities today (Treasury yields are higher), his remark that the "Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policies, by providing support for demand and for the recovery, should help, over time, to reduce long-term unemployment as well” may be the primary driver.

And he reiterated at the end of his speech that "accommodative policies to support the recovery will help address this problem (cyclical unemployment) as well."  He clearly didn't back away from some new form of QE3, but it's a tougher calls as to whether he inched back toward it (gold is up). Goldman Sachs, for examples, expects QE3 sometime in Q2.

Finally he cited three possible explanations for the recent dip in unemployment.

• The first two, he mostly dismissed: GDP data will be revised upward and discouraged workers have left the labor force. He did not, however, provide much explanation on the substantial decline in the labor force participation rate.

• The third explanation - firms fired too quickly in 2009 and are now playing catch-up - was his most likely reason for the recent dip in the employment rate (see chart below from Bernanke's speech)

While Bernanke believes much of the still-high rate of unemployment is cyclical and not structural - and I agree - I tend to disagree with his assessment that firms laid off too quickly in 2009  - see chart below:



The drop in GDP matched the drop in nonfarm payrolls.

Since Bernanke believes the high rate of unemployment is being caused primarily by a lack of economic growth, QE3 remains an option. And this has implications for bond yields, money markets, CDs etc.

Of course, it also has implications for stocks and potentially commodities.

Fed statement–little change

A very quick and cursory look at the just-released Fed statement - 2:15 pm ET - revealed mostly a carbon copy of January's statement. And maybe just a slight upgrade in the outlook.

The Fed said:

• the economy is expanding moderately and it expects moderate economic growth over the coming quarters.
• the unemployment rate has declined notably but going forward, it anticipates just a gradual drop
• higher oil and gasoline will have just a temporary impact on inflation before it eventually slows (added)
  • With the economy still on an uneven footing, would the majority on the Fed really acknowledge a concern about inflation? Seems unlikely as that would force their hand and it would send LT rates soaring.
• no changes in any language regarding a third round of QE

None of this is really any surprise.

The Fed may just be setting the stage for something more significant at its two-day meeting in April (March's was just a day).

Final demand, which has befuddled policymakers given the relatively upbeat nonfarm payroll numbers, may hold the key for any new round of easing.

Sterilized bond buys appears to be the most likely part if we have a new move.

Retail sales
Good news on the retail front this a.m., and the upward revisions to January were welcome. But taken together with the weakness in Nov and Dec, it's steady as she goes. Still, I'll take upbeat numbers at the margin any day.

All this suggests the consumer is feeling better moving into the new year, as higher consumer confidence translates into more spending, despite the surge in gasoline prices.

Fed opens door wider to QE3

We're not there yet but comments coming out of yesterday's Fed meeting strongly suggested that the Fed will eventually implement a new round of QE3.

None of this should come as a surprise since a majority of Fed voting members have been bemoaning the high rate of unemployment for a while.

Sure we've seen a modest pick up in growth since the summer, but progress on unemployment has been slow, and publicly, that is the Fed's reason for its focus on QE3.

Economic projections are far from rosy

1. Sluggish GDP growth. In fact, a slight dip in the GDP forecast from Nov.
2. Slow progress on unemployment.
3. Subdued inflation within the Fed’s target.

In Bernanke's opening statement of his press conference, he said the Fed is "prepared to provide further monetary accommodation if employment is not making sufficient progress towards our assessment of its maximum level, or if inflation shows signs of moving further below its mandate-consistent rate.”

So if inflation slips some, the Fed has the extra wiggle room to buy bonds. Helicopter Ben couldn't pass up that opportunity!

And he added in a follow up to a question that QE3 is an “an option that’s certainly on the table.”

Earnings less than impressive, but sun shines on stocks

Let's talk earnings first.

Major bank earnings stung by capital market pressure.  The major banks posted less-than impressive earnings – blame uncertainty in the capital markets and weaker trading revenues.
But there have been positive takeaways:

• Lending growth has started to accelerate, mimicking loan data provided by the Fed
• Credit quality is slowly improving
• Capital ratios remain solid

Earnings, Earnings, Earnings: It’s still early but just 47% of the companies of the less than 10% of the S&P 500 that has reported through Jan 18th have topped estimates, down from 70% in the previous four quarters (Wall Street Journal). And it’s been a much-reduced bar that companies have had to clear.

The earnings season is young. Let's see if we get a shot in the arm from the non-financials.
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Despite the slow start to earnings season, it's RISK ON in the market! Last year's losers, materials and financials are this year's winners, as funds rotate out of last year's winners, utilities and consumer staples.

But let's be clear, despite the massive amounts of liquidity offered by the ECB, troubles in Europe haven't gone away, and we aren't seeing the needed fiscal reforms that would put the continent on a path toward fiscal solvency. But for now the focus has returned to our shores, as the economic data have been generally upbeat.
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Turning to the data,

1-Weekly jobless claims tumble 50k to 352k. That's impressive and strongly suggests the expanding economy is forcing companies to hold onto employees.

But let's wait one more week on this volatile indicator. Yes, it's timely and suggests 2012 is off to a fast start, but quirks in January's data can sometimes dull the value of the report at this time of year.

2-Housing starts - Housing stocks caught fire late last year and yesterday's rise in home builder sentiment to less pessimistic levels (4 1/2-year high) attracted new buyers. And Dec's drop in housing starts is a bit misleading due to a huge drop in multi-family starts.

Both single-family starts and permits advanced. No wonder builder sentiment is improving.


Stay tuned.