Upcoming Inflation and Retail Figures

On Tuesday, we will be looking to a couple of key reports that will give us fresh fodder to discuss but will likely not provide much in the way of new economic trends. First, let's look at the Producer Price Index for March, which will be out about an hour before the opening bell on Wall Street. Most analysts anticipate that the main number will be unchanged amid the ongoing economic backdrop, while the core rate, which eliminates volatile food and energy prices, is expected to inch up roughly 0.1%.

What's interesting is that the core rate is still up a surprising 4.0% even though the economy has been quickly contracting and prices at the early stages of production have tumbled. Still, I would suspect that the "stickiness" in core prices will eventually abate since the economy remains sluggish and employers have been very stingy handing out raises - assuming you were lucky enough to receive an annual increase.

Following a small dip in January, retail sales rebounded in February and are expected to grow modestly in March when the data hits early tomorrow. Many stores have found it necessary to offer discounts in order to attract shell-shocked consumers since the awful economy has taken a big bite out of payrolls and scared the daylights out of many. But gasoline prices are still well off the highs of last year - putting extra dollars in the pockets of consumers, and some may be choosing to put their tax refunds to work at their local retailer rather than paying down debt or stashing away the cash in a savings account.