Nonfarm payroll losses less than forecast
What a difference one month makes. June’s larger-than-expected increase in nonfarm payrolls cast doubt about prospects for a recovery. Today’s release of a 247,000 drop in nonfarm payrolls has those same folks talking about an economic rebound.
Meanwhile, in a separate survey, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 9.5% to 9.4%.
As I had previously discussed, trends do not move in a straight line and the data taken together pointed to an eventual improvement.
Further improvements won’t be in a straight line either, but the government will probably declare the recession ended in July or August when it finally makes its announcement roughly one year from now.
On average, it takes just two months after a recession has ended before a positive number graces the headlines.
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