Saturday, November 14, 2009

Inflation pressure slowly growing from overseas

Prices from overseas increased 0.7% in October, the seventh increase in eight months as fuel prices jumped a steep 1.8%.  Excluding fuel, prices increased a modest 0.4%, which follows similar gains over the prior two months.

Strong increases in industrial supplies over the last three months have boosted import inflation at the core level, which is not much of a surprise given gains in commodity prices.

The weakening dollar may be playing a role, but at this point it is probably minor since depressed demand in the U.S. makes it very difficult to raise prices.  Moreover, currency fluctuations do not immediately translate into price changes due to hedging techniques.

Gains from oil disappear

Prices remain below levels seen one year ago, but the steep decline that was fueled primarily by falling oil prices has mostly dissipated.

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