Thursday, January 7, 2010

Weekly jobless claims little changed

Trend remains positive

With the exception of reporting on the specifics of the data, not a whole lot can be said about weekly initial jobless claims this week. Initial claims inched up by 1,000 to 434,000, while the 4-week-moving average continues to fall, dropping 10,250 to 450,250, and continuing claims declined 179,000 to 4.8 million.

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Not much action in the latest week, but the drop in the 4-week moving average, which washes out most of the volatility, tells me the economy continues to improve. 

And continuing claims are down almost 2 million from the peak, though much of the decline may be due to the jobless losing standard benefits that typically last six months and not from gainful employment.

Initial claims remain at an historically high level. And though layoffs are clearly easing, further gains in economic activity are needed in order to bring claims to a more acceptable level as well bring about respectable increases in employment.

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