Weekly initial jobless claims fell 10,000 in the latest week to 453,000, registering the second-straight weekly drop. But the 4-week moving average managed a small rise of 1,750 to 459,000. And as the chart below reflects, progress has all but stalled.
On Friday, the government will issue the highly-anticipated labor report for May. Employers are forecast to have created 540,000 new jobs last month, with the bulk having come from temporary census workers.
Hence, private payrolls will be the mostly closely watched release in the data. Another solid gain in excess of 200,000, like we saw last month, would be welcome.
But the economists surveyed by Bloomberg are providing a range of 225,000 to 635,000, highlighting the uncertainty among forecasters.
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