After hitting a 2010 peak just four weeks ago, weekly jobless claims have been on a nearly uninterrupted downward trend, dropping by 53,000 in just a month’s time.
In the latest week, weekly initial jobless claims fell 27,000 to 451,000, putting the closely-eyed figure on the labor market back near the bottom of the range it has been in since the year began. The 4-week moving average declined by an impressive 9,250 to 477,750.
According to Bloomberg News that the Labor Department told Market News International that nine states had to be estimated due to delays tied to the holiday shortened week, but the government stressed that data since received confirm the improvement.
Holiday weekends sometimes cause difficulty when it comes to producing a reliable report, as seasonal adjustments to not always capture the nuances of that particular holiday or event.
So it may take another couple of weeks to confirm that conditions are actually improving in the labor market.
If the trend continues – and there’s a giant question mark hanging over that statement as the chart above reflects the many false starts we’ve seen since the beginning of the year – and claims settle in between 400,000 and 450,000 it would be a sign that the lull in summer activity has come to an end.
Readings below 400,000 would be a more concrete sign that economic activity is accelerating.
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