What an awful day on the Street. In the wake of S&P’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt on late Friday, global markets, and the U.S. in particular, reacted violently to the country’s loss of its cherished AAA rating.
Never mind that the downgrade had been telegraphed in advance.
Never mind that Standard & Poor’s had been the U.S.’ harshest critic on deficit spending, stating a month ago that there was a 50-50 chance of a downgrade if a $4 trillion plan was not put in place.
Never mind, as Bloomberg News noted, that France, Germany and the U.K., which still hold the coveted rating, all have CDS costs – or insurance against default – that is higher than that of a U.S. Treasury note.
Still, the timing of the downgrade could not have come at a worse time, as heightened recession concerns and growing debt woes in Europe took a huge toll on the market last week.
Not surprisingly, gold prices jumped in reaction to the instability, but interestingly, investors also sought safety in Treasuries, despite the opinion by S&P that government debt no longer warrants the gold-standard AAA rating.
Without question, Bernanke’s Fed has been very closely watching the fluid situation in the financial markets, as well as the recent spate of weak economic data and the still-unfolding situation in Europe.
QE2, when it was all said and done, had little impact on the real economy, and the jump in stock prices we saw earlier in the year, which Fed officials were happy to trumpet, has all but evaporated.
Further, the extra cash the Fed injected into the system exacerbated commodity inflation, which has hurt the economy.
That doesn’t mean equities, which are looking for their next fix from the Fed, would shun another infusion of central bank liquidity.
It only means that it’s a temporary solution to a bigger problem. We’ll know more on Tuesday at the conclusion of the Fed’s meeting.
Monday, August 8, 2011
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