The Fed–shoot now, ask questions later

The markets had anticipated the Fed would act, but the magnitude of the FOMC’s open-ended commitment to increase its balance sheet was met with a bullish stampede today.

And it wasn’t just stocks. Oil, gold and a host of other commodities gained ground.

The Fed is trying to reflate, and it won’t stop until it sees substantial progress in the labor market. In fact, the Fed’s statement was clear:

“If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.”

So it's not just looking for improvement. The Fed will continue its bond purchases until it sees "substantial improvement."

At least publicly, it does not believe it will materially add to inflation, but the key question is whether its latest path will aid the economy and move the needle on the unemployment rate.

QE1 and QE2 - or $2.3 trillion in bond buys - have failed to significantly lift the economy. Bernanke even acknowledged in his press conference that "I don't think our tools are that strong."

The Fed chief has said before that monetary policy is not a panacea, but that was an interesting remark as the central bank embarks on a new chapter.