For about the past three months, we have seen very little improvement in weekly jobless claims, highlighting the unbalanced and fragile economic recovery for much of the nation.
In the latest week, weekly jobless claims fell 5,000 to 457,000, while the 4-week moving average slipped 4,250 to 475,500. Progress in continuing claims seen in much of last year has also ended, with claims rising 12,000 in the latest week to 4.6 million.
It is important to note that the over 2 million drop in continuing claims from the peak is mostly due to standard benefits running out, as continuing claims do not include those who are on emergency extensions.
As I’ve mentioned in prior posts, weekly jobless claims are a great gauge of economic activity because the release is current and it is a barometer of business confidence.
Falling claims suggest that companies are seeing a pick up in activity and want to hold on, even add, to staff. Rising claims would signal the opposite.
In addition to the fact that the elevated level of claims is suggesting a lack of job growth in the economy, the stubbornly-high level of jobless claims is a sign that the economic recovery is still fragile and remains uneven.
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