Weekly jobless claims may finally be headed downward, albeit very slowly, after a three month interruption in the trend that began a year ago.
Jobless claims fell 14,000 to 442,000 in the latest week, as the Labor Department released annual revisions to the weekly number (revisions are included in the chart below). The 4-week moving average slipped by 11,000 to 453,750.
Press reports out today mostly suggest that the dip is signaling that the job market is in a weak recovery. Unfortunately, I have to take exception with the mild optimism.
Companies may be slowly cutting back on the jobs being eliminated, but the small drop, though good news (any dip is at least modestly favorable), doesn’t necessarily signal that hiring is picking up.
The economy has begun to expand. But so far, the recovery is uneven and companies remain reluctant to ramp up hiring.
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