Thursday, May 27, 2010

Jobless claims fall but trend is discouraging

Weekly initial jobless claims fell in the latest week, dropping 14,000 to 460,000.

However, looking at the chart below, the improvement in jobless claims that began in early 2009 has pretty much stalled.

image

Evidence is piling up that the recovery which began in manufacturing is spreading to the broad service sector.  Consumer spending is improving modestly and consumer confidence has edged higher.

At this point, economic gains should be encouraging employers to not only hang on to current employees, but to also add workers.  Job creation has picked up, based on government data, but jobless claims are holding at elevated levels.

At a minimum, the high level of jobless claims suggests that employment gains may be minimal in the coming months.

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