Heading into tomorrow’s release of nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, weekly jobless claims ran its winning streak to three weeks, with claims falling 7,000 to 444,000. The 4-week moving average fell 4,750 to 458,500 and continuing claims dropped 59,000 to 4.6 million.
The recent drop is welcome, but as the chart above reflects, claims have been hovering – stuck might be a more accurate description – in a narrow range for almost five months.
Despite the stubbornly-high level of weekly claims, economists surveyed by Bloomberg are optimistically predicting that 200,000 will have been created in April, when the data hit tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 9.7% to 9.6%.
If economists are correct, the jump in employment would be the clearest sign yet that the jobless recovery is fading into the review mirror and a self-sustaining rebound is emerging.
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