Weekly jobless claims fell just 4,000 in the latest week t0 621,000 and have been holding above 600,000 since the end of January. There have been no signs of an acceleration, in fact, continuing claims fell for the first time since January, declining 15,000 to 6.74 million. However, claims haven’t been falling either as firms continue to shed payrolls.
There is not a one-to-one correlation, but we are likely to see another big decline in nonfarm payrolls for May when the data are released tomorrow given the steady number of weekly claims over the last month.
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