The Empire Manufacturing Index is a narrow look at manufacturing as the survey from the New York Fed covers just New York state. But it gets some play because it is the first look at goods producers in July (or for that matter, any current month).
The index increased 9 points in July to –0.6, the best reading in about a year and essentially pointing to flat conditions. Even better, the new orders index rose above zero for the first time since September 2008, climbing from -8.2 to 5.9.
If we see improvements in the Philly Fed Index out on Thursday and the ISM Manufacturing Index (the national survey) keeps rising, it’s possible we could get a positive reading in industrial production for July.
New orders will be of interest. In particular, the export component of the ISM will be something I’ll be looking at given signs of improvement in Asia, especially China.
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