Some good news for a change on the employment front – weekly initial jobless claims fell 21,000 to 454,000, the 4-week moving average dipped by 1,250 to 466,000, and continuing claims plunged 244,000 to 4.4 million.
However, let’s not get too excited, as some did today, about one week’s worth of data. As the chart above reveals, claims have been hovering in a narrow range for several months.
The uneven recovery did cool some in June and any further moderation would likely stymie any downward trend that might be ready to develop in jobless claims. The drop in weekly claims is welcome and is obviously preferred to a 21,000 increase in the volatile series.
Still, let’s wait a few more weeks in order to determine if we are finally breaking out of the narrow range.
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