Weekly jobless claims give up advantage from prior week

Weekly initial jobless claims, which hit its lowest level in over two years last week, rebounded by a larger-than-expected 26,000 in the latest week to 436,000.  Though disappointing, the data may have been skewed somewhat by the Thanksgiving holiday, which sometimes makes it difficult to accurately account for the nuances of the holiday.

Still, the 4-week moving average maintained its downward trend, dipping 5,750 to 431,000, while continuing claims rose 53,000 to 4.3 million.



Weekly jobless claims provide an excellent look at economic activity because of the data's timeliness and because it’s an excellent measure of business confidence.

Claims have finally broken through the bottom of the range they have been in for over a year, as the declining number of layoffs is signaling a modest quickening in the pace of economic activity.

Still, numbers consistently below 400,000 would go a long way in reflecting a recovery that is finally shifting to a more permanent phase.