Weekly initial jobless claims jumped 18,000 in the latest week to 409,000, while the 4-week moving average, which eliminates much of the week-to-week volatility, slipped 3,500 to 410,750.
This week’s increase shouldn’t be taken as a sign that progress in the labor market is being stifled, in my view, as the numbers tend to gyrate every seven days. More importantly, as the chart below reflects, along with the drop in the 4-week moving average, the gradual reduction in the number of initial claims is continuing.
An accurate picture of jobless claims can sometimes be difficult to capture at year-end because of the difficulty in accounting for seasonal discrepancies, i.e., we tend to get plenty of noise in the data.
The large drop last week, followed by a fairly decent increase this week, seems to bear this out, though the Labor Department said there weren’t any special factors to consider, according to Bloomberg News.
We will get a clearer picture in the coming weeks, as January’s numbers provide a post-holiday look at claims, but recent progress suggests the recovery is broadening and is helping to strengthen what so far has been a weak labor market.
0 comments:
Post a Comment