Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Bank lending continues to struggle

With the exception of commercial and industrial loans, bank lending continues to struggle under the weight of tight lending standards and the general reluctance among the public to take on new debt commitments.

As of March 31, 2011 bank credit at all commercial banks (blue line) is down 2.4% from one year ago, according to data supplied by the Federal Reserve.

Consumer lending at all commercial banks (orange line) has fared even worse, falling 7.3% from a year ago.

Bank credit all commercial banks (y/y percent change)
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Source: Federal Reserve

Only commercial and industrial lending (red line), which took the biggest hit during the recession, is headed in the right direction, rising 5.7% year-over-year. Further, loans have been accelerating rapidly.

Credit the strong recovery in manufacturing, as firms expand to meet modest demand at home and stronger demand overseas.

More worrisome, however, is the lackadaisical mood among consumers.

Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy, and the continued decline in consumer loans suggests spending won’t be a big contributor to economic activity any time soon.

Lending standards have been tight in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis, and a cautious mood is also holding back outlays as well as GDP.

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