The upcoming week will have a modest number of economic reports, with retail sales (Wednesday) and industrial production (Friday) probably showing more signs of stabilization.
There was an unexpectedly-large drop in March retail sales but we will probably see the number bounce back some for April, especially since Easter was later this year. I should point out that government statisticians try to adjust for such seasonal variations but they don’t always capture the nuances.
Rising consumer confidence may also lend support since any easing of worries might encourage shoppers to take advantage of the deals that many stores are offering.
Though jobs are still disappearing at a fast clip, nonfarm payrolls released last Friday show that companies are not being quite as aggressive when it comes to letting workers go (Unemployment rate approaches 9%...). In addition, it looks as if weekly jobless claims have peaked, which is also a sign that the steepest drops in payrolls are in the rear view mirror.
Manufacturing
The buyers strike in the US and around the globe has hit manufacturing hard. In the first three months of the year, US industrial production declined at an annual pace of 20%, the quickest rate since the end of World War II. Yes, this recession has been particularly harsh on manufacturers.
The good news is that the ISM survey, which looks very closely at a number of key components among manufacturers, is signaling that output among these businesses is not contracting as quickly (Economy slowly stirring) and we may see just a modest decline in April output.
Other reports this week include data on inflation, but since rising prices over the short-term are not a worry, these reports are likely to get less attention unless they are way off the consensus forecast.
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