Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Durables, jobless claims up to bat

We received great news from the Conference Board's survey of May consumer confidence, and existing home sales may not have turned up, but since October, they have been bumping along the bottom. Thank record low mortgage rates and great deals on foreclosures.

Tomorrow, durable goods orders are expected to creep higher. The ISM Manufacturing Index and other surveys of the goods-producing sector show that manufacturers are not seeing an upturn so we are not likely to get much in the way of good news when April's number hit early Thursday morning. Whatever the result, durables can be very volatile month-to-month so trends are key.

Jobless claims are released weekly and are a great indicator when it comes to gauging the health of the economy. As I've mentioned before, it is timely and provides a good reading on business confidence because employers will start cutting back on layoffs if they anticipate an upturn in the near future.

If they continue to jettison employees, that signals a a lack of confidence. However, the numbers may be skewed somewhat given recent layoffs concentrated in the auto industry.

New home sales for April will also be out on Thursday, but builders still face stiff competition from numerous foreclosures.

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