The 4-week moving average rose 5,500 to 395,750, and continuing claims dipped by 58,000 to 3.68 million.
Because of its timeliness and its reflection of business confidence, jobless claims are an excellent leading indicator of future economic activity.
The decline below 400,000 has been encouraging as economic activity has picked up in recent months, and the sudden reversal would be a bit concerning.
Bloomberg News did report this morning that factors tied to the start of the quarter may be responsible for the unexpected jump in claims. It did not make mention of the earthquake in Japan, which has caused a kink in the global supply chain.
Due to the volatility of the weekly numbers, we’ll need confirmation over the next couple of weeks as to whether we’re seeing a slowdown in the recovery or just a temporary blip in weekly claims tied to the difficulty in making seasonal adjustments.
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