Weekly initial jobless claims held below 440,000 for the third week in four, helping to confirm the recent downward trend.
Weekly claims did rise 2,000 to 439,000 in he latest week, but the 4-week moving average, which smooths out the volatility in the weekly data and is a better gauge of the market, fell 4,000 to 443,000. Continuing claims dropped 48,000 to 4.3 million.
Jobless claims appear to be settling into a new range after hovering in a band between about 450,000 to 500,0000 for over a year.
The slight, downward trend not only suggests that that labor market may be slowly firming, but it is also an indication that economic activity is gradually picking up. Though consumer confidence continues to languish, other data, such as retail sales, have been improving.
Nonetheless, any enthusiasm from the recent drop in jobless claims needs to be tempered by the fact that claims remain elevated and any improvement in the economy is likely to be modest.
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