Volatile Empire Index sinks into negative territory

The Empire Manufacturing Index, which is a narrow but early look at manufacturing and focuses only on New York state, fell 27 points to -11.1. The new orders index plummeted 37 points to -24.4, and the shipments index also fell below zero.


Surprisingly, given the sharp increases in many commodity prices, the prices paid index fell 8 points to 22.1, suggesting that the pace of price increases slowed in November. The prices received fell 11 points to -2.6—a sign of slight downward pressure on selling prices.

As already mentioned, this index tends to be fairly volatile, which can be seen by the chart above provided by the New York Fed.

The global economy has been improving and U.S. exports are gaining traction.  And most other U.S. economic indicators, including the six-month outlook that is part of this survey, continue to flash cautiously optimistic signs.

Unless confirmed by other data, this report is an outlier and should be ignored this month, in my opinion.